HSH.com recently released its Home Price Recovery Index, which uses the Federal Housing Finance Agency’s (FHFA) Home Price Index to track which housing markets have recovered the most since the Great Recession. I was floored to see how many metros have not just recovered, are not just flourishing, but are absolutely killing it in terms of peak home prices.
The data begins in the first quarter of 1991 and runs through the first quarter of 2017, providing a nice, wide birds-eye view of a true housing market cycle. HSH’s analytics notes that 60 of the top 100 U.S. housing market metros are currently at all-time highs. These are not highs since the recession…these are all-time highs!
It’s Good to Be King
HSH’s top 10 metros didn’t change from its last report, which ran through the third quarter of 2016, but the mortgage information publisher was quick to point out that all 10 of those metros moved further north of their “boom time” peaks in terms of home prices.
The top 10 metros experiencing the largest housing price peaks include:
- Denver-Aurora-Lakewood, CO (67.16% above peak home value)
- Austin-Round Rock, TX (55.66%)
- Dallas-Plano-Irving, TX MSA (53.02%)
- Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX (48.36%)
- Fort Worth-Arlington, TX MSA (43.46%)
- Nashville-Davidson-Murfreesboro-Franklin, TN (38.95%)
- San Francisco-Redwood City-South San Francisco, CA MSA (34.16%)
- San Antonio-New Braunfels, TX (32.53%)
- Pittsburgh, PA (29.16%)
- Buffalo-Cheektowaga-Niagara Falls, NY (26.38%)
With equity saved up, now may be the perfect time for clients to pull money out for renovations or to refinance. Those wanting to jump into the market should be encouraged to do so soon before these metros set even larger records, particularly as interest rates inch up!
Started from the Bottom
Every yin has its yang, which means for every 10 housing markets that have recovered beyond our wildest dreams, there are those that still lag behind.
The top 10 markets with the most room for recovery include:
- Bakersfield, CA (40.04% off from peak home value levels)
- Las Vegas-Henderson-Paradise, NV (38.15%)
- Stockton-Lodi, CA (34.81%)
- Fresno, CA (30.44%)
- Camden, NJ MSA (27.63%)
- Cape Coral-Fort Myers, FL (26.79%)
- Riverside-San Bernardino-Ontario, CA (23.00%)
- New Haven-Milford, CT (22.99%)
- Bridgeport-Stamford-Norwalk, CT (22.33%)
- Tucson, AZ (21.86%)
Being the astute salesperson you are, I know you know this information is not cause for alarm. Rather, there’s opportunity in them thar hills! Every investor, whether they’re planning to occupy a space for the next 30 years or sell it in the next five, wants to buy low and sell high. These metros provide the best opportunity for this!
The peak levels give you a barometer of just how much potential these markets have. They present deals that aren’t currently available in more than half of the major metros. Now is the perfect time while interest rates are still low for buyers to get their hands on what could be a major deal! These markets are not at fire sale prices. Rather, they’re displaying reasonable pricing with a large upside potential.
Whether your market is in the top 10, lower 10 or somewhere in between, there are investments of all shapes and sizes to be had for the buyer. Determine where your sweet spot lies, and make it your mission to put these deals in front of deserving clients!